PANIC!!! Get your pitchforks ready to march on the AAC!

How does it feel to be on a real losing streak? The Dallas Mavericks have a pretty good idea now, for first time in over a calender year they have lost three straight games. And they have done it in the most frustrating way! 2 of the 3 games have simple and easy answers to why they lost, but we'll get to that in a moment. The last 17 games the Mavs' are 8-9. Most are looking at just this stretch as the problem area, but I believe all of this started further back than 17 games. This is a much deeper issue, and a much more psychological problem than just poor play. So is it time to hit the panic button? Lets analyze!

1) We start January 28th against the Phoenix Suns, the Mavs' lost 112-106, and in the 4th quarter of that game Dirk Nowitzki took 1 shot, and touched the ball only 1 other time. Similarly, in last nights blunder in Utah, Nowitzki took 0 shots in the 4th quarter. Troubling as this may be, here is what is more frustrating. As I watched the game unfold I saw Dirk go 7 of 9 from the field in the 3rd quarter and score 14 points while Jason Kidd dished out 8 assists and the Mavs' rolled. How can you, as a team, not get Dirk, one of the greatest players in the league, the ball in the 4th? He scored 28 points in the game and didn't take a shot in the 4th...? Why? The turning point in the game came late in the third, not in the fourth, when Kidd went up and blocked a Utah shot from behind. Replay confirmed that it was probably the cleanest block of all time...yet the ref called a foul on the play, giving the Jazz free throws. The Mavs' were up 6 at that point, and could have gone up by 8 or 9 with that extra possession, but instead the lead was cut to 4 and the momentum swung the other way leaving the home team Utah up by a point going into the 4th. From there the Mavs' had 7 turnovers (although it seemed like 50), got 2 shots blocked, missed free throws, and the entire team only attempted 10 shots...and they never got the ball to their best player. Their second? best player Jason Terry, shot the ball 4 times in the 4th but none of his shots fell. Incidentally, Dirk and Terry are two of the leagues top 4th quarter scorers, Dirk at 7 points per, and Terry not far back with 6. Why are they not getting the ball more in the 4th? Check out how Dirk and Terry are very humble and gracious team players...while it was not their fault they were not getting good looks or the ball at all they still not only took the blame but put it on themselves to get better and fix the problems. Leadership!

2) I believe the problem for this team started further back than just 17 games. No one seems to be talking about this, but it is relevant. 22 games ago the Mavericks sat at a record of 19-7. since then, they have gone 11-11, right at .500. The December 18th game against the Houston Rockets (who they had beaten destroyed twice already) may have been the game that flipped the switch to off. This is the game that Carl Landry's teeth shattered into Dirks elbow, and the Dirk-less Mavs' made a push but lost in OT due to some extremely questionable refereeing. I believe that up to this point in the season the Mavs' thought they were as good as they were playing. They had lost some games where they played poorly but for the most part they were dominating, and playing the best defense I'd ever seen a Maverick team play, they were even among the top 5 defensive teams in the league. Then this game...and now a 19-7 team is since a lucky-to-be .500 team. Could it be that this game was a psychological turning point for this Mavs' team? Why have they played so poorly since then? The team defense has been sloppy at best lately, where before it was constrictive and controlling. They played D with confidence and assertiveness, now teams are doing whatever they want to the Mavs', pushing them around on defense. After that game Jason Terry hit a major slump and couldn't hit a basket for 12 games or so, Dirk struggled to get his 25, and Kidd's efficient quarterbacking of the offense went from being "Peyton Manning" to "Jay Cutler" (Jekyll and Hyde). The fact is, we've seen this team play very good defense, and we know that any team with Dirk, Kidd, Terry, Marion, and this bench WILL be good on offense (if they run it right...which means running it through Dirk). So why the fall off? Teams go through those psychological phases, and I think the Mavs' have not recovered from that particular loss. They played well enough to win and win by a large margin, but, everything they did that was good was negatively equaled by the officials, and a so-so Rockets team beat them in a gritty overtime game that was played mostly without Dirk. That loss effected me psychologically and got into my head. I left the arena confused that night and I believe they did as well. I think they need the all star break just about as bad as any team. And maybe on the other side of that they can get their minds right. I'm not making excuses for their terrible play of late, but I am saying that something went from "ON" to "OFF" and I think it happened on December 18th. 

3) Three straight losses and some fans are calling for scrapping the season and focusing on the summer of 2010 free agency (which will be epic!). But there is no reason to start over already. There are five games till the all star break and the trade deadline is not until the 17th of Feb. Plenty of time to get stuff right. The problem is, what needs to get right, and will they actually get it right? Mark Cuban has been known to make trade deadline moves in the past but the problem this year is this: can the Mavs' land someone now that will put them over the top? I think the answer is no. Who can they find that will make them good enough right now to beat the Nuggets and the Lakers in the playoffs? Kevin Martin? Caron Butler? Andre Iguodala? I don't think so...not when this summer you have a shot at landing Chris Bosh or Dwayne Wade or Amar'e Stoudamire. They would have to give up Josh Howard now to get one of the roll players...who honestly would be an upgrade from the way J-Ho has performed lately. But unless the Mavs' make that huge trade now for a player that makes them a championship team this season, they need to sit with what they have and be patient. This is hard for me to say. I want more than anything for them to make a move now and win this season, but the smarter thing may prove to be waiting.

This teams youngest starter is Dirk at 31 years old...everyone's prime is on its back end and the Dirk era is only a few years from coming to a close. But Mark Cuban has yet to let us down, and Donnie Nelson is a genus. So we will pray that they do what is in the best interest of the future, and hope that they know what they are doing. So for now, I'm saying in time everything will work itself out...so until things get quite a bit worse, put the Panic button away and keep giving Dirk the ball in the 4th!